When did bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) start? Implications on the prediction of a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (nvCJD) epidemic.

BACKGROUND Knowing the starting date of the BSE epidemic and its size at the very beginning is crucial to interpret the timing of the nvCJD cases and to forecast the nvCJD epidemic. The first cases occurred in 1985. The models devised by Anderson (back-calculation) and Dealler (age-period-cohort) led to an estimate of less than 50 cases in 1983, and none earlier. Here, we applied age-cohort models to the BSE data in order to estimate the earliest possible date of the first unrecognized BSE cases. METHODS The numbers of confirmed BSE cases in the UK, by age group and by calendar year from 1988 to 1996, were analysed by Poisson regression. The cases' age distribution was considered as constant between the different birth cohorts. The herd's age structure was taken into account. RESULTS According to the models, BSE cases may have occurred as early as 1980. The expected number of cases before 1990 is almost twice the number of confirmed cases and exceeds by more than 20% the expected value of Anderson's model. The scenario of first human exposure in 1980 leads to fewer future nvCJD cases than predicted by Cousens with exposure patterns starting in 1983 or 1985. CONCLUSION The first birth cohort available, consisting of two cases older than 10 in 1988, does not allow any projections before 1980. Moreover, confidence intervals are wide and the power of the study is limited by the great dispersion of the data; the precision of the estimations would be improved by considering geographical incidence. Nevertheless, our projections are consistent with Wilesmith's survey of rendering plants relating the emergence of BSE to the dramatic fall in the proportion of meat and bone meal following solvent extraction, initiated in the late 1970s (65% in 1977 to 10% in 1983).